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DCI

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Went back and looked at my 2018 New Year's prediction to see how I did.

The beginning of the year is going to feature some big legislative fights that have been getting put off, but can't be put off for much longer. DACA expires in March, and CHIP funds will run out in a lot of states after January. There is a decent amount of bipartisan will to address both of these issues, but Democrats probably won't want to support any spending bill that includes any funding for a border wall, which is something that the President is demanding.

CHIP sort of has to be saved one way or another, but imo, there isn't going to be any DACA for border wall deal unless it's full of a bunch of other stuff that makes it such an amazing deal for Democrats that they can't refuse, which isn't very likely. I think that the only way that this impasse is cleared is if the President accepts some kind of "border security" funding for things like high tech surveillance, border agents, etc. Democrats just aren't going to budge much at all because it's such an inflammatory issue to their supporters, who also happen to hate the President in general.

I don't think there will be much of any major legislation this year. The idea that there is going to be some significant entitlement reform is a complete fantasy. Maybe there could be some sort of humble infrastructure package, but even that would probably be tough. Democrats have no political incentive to vote for much of anything, and a decent amount of Republicans in unsafe seats are going to be distancing themselves from the President, more so the closer that the elections get.
I think that the special counsel's Russia/Trump investigation won't be over any time soon and is going to end up completely drowning everything else out by the end of the year. It's obviously hard to know, since none of us know what actually happened, but personally, I don't think that all these people lied about their contacts with Russia for no reason. I don't think Mike Flynn lied to the FBI for no reason. I don't think the President tried to protect Mike Flynn for no reason. I don't think Flynn got an amazingly sweet deal for no reason, and I don't think the President is trying to undermine the credibility of the FBI, the DOJ, and this investigation for no reason. I think it defies common sense to believe at this point that there won't be more to come out of this that's bigger than anything that we've seen so far.
I still think Democrats will retake the house in the mid terms, but not the Senate. It's not exactly a very bold prediction at this point, given that Republicans are currently being crushed in generic Congressional polling. In the absence of some unforeseen triumph for the President that shoots his approval way up, his party is very unlikely not to lose a lot of seats. It would still take a very epic wipe out for Republicans to lose the Senate, because about 3/4 of the Senate seats up in 2018 are Democrat held seats. It's possible, but very unlikely. Personally, I hope that we will have a split Congress, because I'm tired of seeing people push shitty 50-vote legislation through the Senate.
Other than the Russia investigation not drowning everything out yet, I think I did pretty good there!

Anyone going to give 2019 a shot, or is it just going to be me again? This one will be a lot harder to guess...
 
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cassius

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Went back and looked at my 2018 New Year's prediction to see how I did.







Other than the Russia investigation not drowning everything out yet, I think I did pretty good there!

Anyone going to give 2019 a shot, or is it just going to be me again? This one will be a lot harder to guess...
There probably won't be any legislation passed much this year. But that is what we voted for, a divided legislature to keep Trump under control.
Money running out? Did you include the riots that will be about to start? We're being pitted against each other whether it's rich against the poor or other way around or Americans against immigrants.
And have you ever been in a grocery store when the food stamp cards get shut off? I have. It ain't pretty.
 
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/opinion/trump-evangelicals-cyrus-king.html

If I didn't know it before, now I do. The Christian right has lost or perhaps not found their ever loving minds. Any self respecting Persian will tell you that Cyrus was the intelligent king who led them into civilization. Whether it's true or not, it's something they take very strongly. Trump is attempting to make Luddites out of all of us.
 
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cassius

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not working for me this morning.
 
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jan

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Trump to 'take over' the airwaves tomorrow night in 'prime time' (the major networks will be covering his 'speech').

I'm guessing he's going to declare a National Emergency?

Why can't we just DTMFA?:arghh:

eta: Oh, oops. Surprise. Perhaps he lied, and the networks have not yet agreed to turn over airtime to him........
 
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Belkor

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Trump to 'take over' the airwaves tomorrow night in 'prime time' (the major networks will be covering his 'speech').

I'm guessing he's going to declare a National Emergency?

Why can't we just DTMFA?:arghh:

eta: Oh, oops. Surprise. Perhaps he lied, and the networks have not yet agreed to turn over airtime to him........
This is going to be an egregious misuse of emergency funds.
 
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cassius

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This is going to be an egregious misuse of emergency funds.
Time to think ... before tonight.

I've seen the nations rise and fall
I've heard their stories, heard them all
But love's the only engine of survival
Your servant here, he has been told
To say it clear, to say it cold
It's over, it ain't going
Any further
And now the wheels of heaven stop
You feel the devil's riding crop
Get ready for the future
It is murder

Leonard Cohen - The Future
 

cassius

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And for the wall - "there is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets in."

 
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Belkor

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lol

The media sucks so bad
Have you seen this piece from Time? http://time.com/5496179/mike-pence-donald-trump-border-wall-proposal-shutdown-democrats/

Especially note this passage: "Democrats remain in lockstep that the government needs to reopen before they will pick up talks about Trump’s plans along the U.S.-Mexican border, while Pence reiterated Monday, “The President is not going to reopen the federal government with a promise that negotiations will begin thereafter.”"

So Trump and Co. are deliberately holding America hostage.
 
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"There is, there is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets through"

“I’ll tell you, to me, the second-most important thing after love what you do is never, ever give up,” Trump told the students, motioning his hands and raising his index finger the same way he does at campaign rallies today. “Don’t give up. Don’t allow it to happen. If there’s a concrete wall in front of you, go through it. Go over it. Go around it. But get to the other side of that wall.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/01/10/if-theres-concrete-wall-front-you-go-through-it-trump-said-unearthed-commencement-speech/?utm_term=.a5a10bf9ccad
 
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Belkor

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"There is, there is a crack in everything. That's how the light gets through"

“I’ll tell you, to me, the second-most important thing after love what you do is never, ever give up,” Trump told the students, motioning his hands and raising his index finger the same way he does at campaign rallies today. “Don’t give up. Don’t allow it to happen. If there’s a concrete wall in front of you, go through it. Go over it. Go around it. But get to the other side of that wall.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/01/10/if-theres-concrete-wall-front-you-go-through-it-trump-said-unearthed-commencement-speech/?utm_term=.a5a10bf9ccad
I heard about this... makes me chuckle every time I read about this. The wall is such a waste of taxpayer funds.
 
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